UCR Says Economy Recovering, Pandemic Easing; Many Businesses Not At Full Throttle Though

The economic downturn caused  by government lockdowns on private business during the Covid-19 pandemic is easing, at last if you ask the University of California Riverside School of Business Center for Economic Forecasting.

Director Christopher Thornberg says the U S hit a low point back in April and now the regional, state and national economies are poised for growth. He says as odd as it may sound, technically, the recession is over, making it the deepest, but shortest in U-S history.

The 2nd Quarter ending in June 2020 saw the U U in a tailspin, with unemployment at historically high levels.

Riverside County had 16% unemployment in May 2020, and that has dropped to 11% now.

The Inland Empire’s labor market continues to steadily recover, adding 74,700 jobs since April’s lows,” according to the report.  Still, on an annual basis, year-over-year employment has fallen by 132,900 jobs. The region is outpacing the state in terms of job recovery, but trailing the nation.

The sectors that have been impacted the most by the lockdowns are leisure and hospitality, retail trade, manufacturing and educational services.

But as restrictions in the state continue, cities in California that rely heavily on tourism, visitors and the transient occupancy tax will experience real hardship due to revenue losses,’ according to the report.

The authors noted that the Coronavirus Aid, Relief & Economic Security Act stimulus, as well as direct federal business and consumer assistance, totaling about $3 trillion, has helped offset losses, though they acknowledged that the spending has been “excessive,” leading to potentially unsustainable

borrowing.

Thornberg and his colleagues expressed the notion that “governments need to worry less about regulating businesses and more about regulating people,” in the context of controlling viral spread and moving forward with economic reopening.

The complete forecast can be read at:

https://ucreconomicforecast.org/wp-

content/uploads/2020/10/IE_Economic_Forecast_Book_October_2020.pdf.

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